Electric vehicles (EV/BEV) are undeniably considered a cost-effective and environmentally friendly alternative to internal combustion vehicles. Their popularity has grown several times over the past two decades, motivating major car companies to launch newer and newer models that promise effective, efficient, and clean mobility. The problem is that they are still powered mainly by grid energy, whose carbon footprint and rising prices across Europe are pushing away the vision of fully zero-emission BEV-based transportation. Will this trend make hydrogen fuel cells dominate the market faster than we could have predicted?
The first electric car was developed back in the mid-19th century. It was designed by a Scottish visionary and inventor Robert Anderson. The prototype, however, was burdened with many disadvantages, so it did not conquer the market at that time. At a similar time, an American blacksmith Thomas Davenport built his own model of an electric vehicle overseas. However, further development of electrics was mainly determined by the development of the lead-acid battery, which at the end of the 19th century enabled the construction of the first electric vehicle powered by direct current.
However, the time of carriages and electric vehicles did not last long, because already at the beginning of the 20th century they were superseded by internal combustion engines, whose technology was in its heyday and proved to be much more practical for the then user. We waited more than 80 years for the great return of electric cars. It was in the 1990s that General Motors released its EV1 as part of a research and development project. Soon after, the Roadster appeared on the market – the first Tesla model produced in cooperation with Lotus Cars. Since then, we have seen a dynamic growth of interest in electric vehicles, which were seen as the greatest opportunity to reduce emissions from transportation. Among their greatest advantages were specially mentioned higher efficiency, lower failure rate, quiet operation and, of course, ecological engine. However, there were also some critical voices, stressing the necessity of frequent charging of the vehicles, high purchase costs, and low availability of charging points, especially in Poland. Nevertheless, for years they have been considered the best alternative to vehicles with combustion engines.
New climate regulations rule out the production of internal combustion engines after 2035.
And finding a good alternative has become a necessity faster than we thought. Already in 2020. As part of the “Green Deal” and the creation of a climate-neutral economy, the European Union announced the need to restructure and modernize the transport sector in Europe. Only a year later, the Fit for 55 climate package saw the light of day, which extends the ETS emissions reduction obligation to the transport sector and notes an increase from 40% to 61% by 2030. According to them, from 2035, no new vehicles with combustion engines will be allowed to be sold or registered within the European Union. This is a huge challenge for manufacturers, who have to make such big changes in such a short time.
Are fuel cells the future of clean mobility?
Hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) have long been touted as an opportunity to meet emissions reduction targets. And for good reason. Unlike BEVs, they do not draw electricity directly from the grid and do not store it in batteries. They are powered by electricity generated by the reaction of hydrogen with oxygen in fuel cells. Hydrogen is supplied to them from a fuel tank. In this respect, FCEVs are similar to internal combustion engine cars, but their operation generates no exhaust fumes and the only byproduct of the combustion process is environmentally neutral water. While a BEV uses the energy it takes in, and FCEV generates energy on an ongoing basis.
Fuel cell cars are also characterized by high efficiency. They can cover up to 700 km on a single refueling (buses about 400 km), and even more, as shown by the recently established record of the Toyota Mirai, which covered 1360 km on a single refueling, thus entering the Guinness Book of Records. At the moment, owning a hydrogen vehicle is associated with high purchase costs, however, according to forecasts, these are going to drop dynamically in the coming years, and the development of the hydrogen refueling infrastructure will make it possible to use them on a daily basis also in Poland. So it is not surprising that already today many are betting that this technology will dominate the automotive market.
Electricity prices in Europe are the highest in years
The economic viability of owning hydrogen vehicles is also affected by the current situation in the energy and fuel markets. The rapidly rising prices of fossil fuels, especially coal and gas, have significantly reduced the profitability of grey hydrogen production. So have the still-rising prices of carbon dioxide emission allowances, which now cost over EUR 90 per tonne.
Now rising conventional energy prices are calling into question the previously high profitability of BEVs. According to experts, at the beginning of December in more than 20 European countries, including Poland, electricity prices leveled off, recording a high of EUR 243/MWh. They were even higher (284.15 EUR/MWh) in another five Eastern European countries, including Greece and Bulgaria. If the expected upward trend continues, charging batteries with energy from the grid may soon cease to be profitable.
Therefore, hydrogen remains an opportunity for further development of electromobility, but it should be emphasized that only the non-emission green hydrogen, produced with the use of energy from renewable sources. Thanks to the development of installations, renewable energy production is becoming cheaper, which translates into a reduction in the price of hydrogen fuel and the final cost of vehicle use.
